← All nine problems
Capabilities, reach or scale

Organic growth takes patience. A well-executed acquisition can fast-forward your ambitions.

The discipline is screening, the business case, focused diligence and a straight answer on whether to proceed. If you proceed, I negotiate the commercial terms through the day and the warranties at four in the morning.

50xreturn on a capability acquisition
40% IRRon a $20M systematic scale roll-up
£2Bdeal aborted on diligence; target failed within 3 years

The capability you need would take a decade to build.

Buy if you can spot the right asset, especially if it is the only way to get what you need.
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The strongest case for acquisition is a capability that cannot be grown in time; the return follows from deploying it across the whole business.

Grocery · Capability acquisition

50x

I ran UK strategy and business development inside a leading UK grocer, where a stake in a customer data science business brought the capability in-house. That guaranteed the retailer access to a competency which had become central to its core business. It also opened new revenue lines selling to FMCG and CPG manufacturers and to international retailers. The investment returned 50x.

The full story →

Scale is available, if you buy it systematically.

Buy-and-build works when the criteria are explicit and discipline persists.
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Clear criteria for what qualifies: brands with individual scale potential, not a long tail of small ones.

Brand licensing · Buy-and-build

40% IRR

At a PE-backed brand licensing business, a systematic roll-up deployed $20M in acquisitions at a 40% IRR hurdle, guided by a clear rule for what qualified.

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Clear criteria for what qualifies: unique market-leading reach in London and nationally.

Convenience retail · Reach

900 stores

I worked on an end-to-end convenience acquisition and a larger estate transaction that together built a standalone convenience business of around 900 stores, leading the sector.

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The vendor says the target is compelling. Is it? Or maybe the vendor is too pessimistic?

Haircutting the vendor’s projections is not a valuation playbook.
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Commercial due diligence should challenge the deal upwards and downwards, not just confirm it. Should you even offer? Were other prospective buyers right to pass?

General merchandise retail · Due diligence

£2B abort

As part of a due diligence team examining a £2B general merchandise retailer, we identified existential challenges and recommended an abort; the target went into administration within three years, citing the same issues.

The full story →

TV rentals · Contrarian diligence

10% vs 30%

The vendor of a TV rentals business priced it as a sunset asset on 30% annual attrition. Diligence work with the sponsor found a loyal core declining at nearer 10%. There was value that everyone else had missed, with a double effect: revenues were more durable, and the cost side enjoyed efficient scale for much longer.

The full story →

Buying isn’t the only route.

Build or partner where it beats the acquisition premium.
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Some capabilities are better rented, partnered or built organically, especially when scale is low, so the new capability is firmly non-core. I have built market entries on fulfilment partnerships in cars, energy and mobile. The buy, build or partner judgement takes place before starting to screen acquisition targets.

Mobile telecoms · Market entry

2 talks, better informed

Launching a virtual mobile network meant riding on the physical infrastructure of one of the four UK operators, so partnership was the only route in. The information asymmetry was severe. The operators wanted the distribution and feared what a new entrant would do to subscriber prices across the market. I led negotiations with two of them. Neither closed, and what they revealed let colleagues land a deal with the third some months later.

The method in full, in the investment lifecycle articles: Deal Foundations and Maximum Impact Levers.

Good diligence changes your view of a target, sometimes upwards.

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